Program in GIS

Screen Captures From the Analysis

Total Registration as a Percent of Total Population

Figure 1: Total registered voters as a percent of total population by Census track.

Source:  Brenton White ArcMap Project 6 data.

Figures 1 shows the percent of registered voters versus the total population in each census tract in the area of study, which is the City of Fitchburg.  The light blue tracts have the lowest percent of registered voters, ranging from about 38-45%, while the dark blue tracks have the highest percent of registered voters, ranging from about 68-80%.  While this map indicates the percentage, it does not indicate the total number of registered voters (i.e., a high percent track could have only a few voters, while a low percent track could have a large number of registered voters).  Thus, to get a complete analysis, we'd want to map additional attributes of our subjects.

Total Hispanic Registration as a Percent of Total Hispanic Population

Figure 2: Hispanic registered voters as a percent of total Hispanic population and number of voters by census track.

Source:  Brenton White ArcMap Project 6 data.

Figures 2 shows the percent of registered Hispanic voters versus the total number of Hispanics for each Census track.  The light brown tracts have the lowest percent of registered Hispanic voter, ranging from just over 2% to just over 4%.  The dark brown tracks have the highest percent of registered Hispanic voters, ranging from about 35-50%.  This map also indicates the total number of registered voters in each tract.  As we can see, there are some light tracks with some high numbers indicating that there are a lot of potential Hispanic voters that are not registered.

Party Affiliation

Figure 3: Party affiliation over Hispanic registration data.

Source:  Brenton White ArcMap Project 6 data.

Figures 3 shows the party affiliation breakdown for each Census track.  The Mugwumps (pale red) and the Whigs (pale blue) dominate in all tracks, with one or the other being the larger representation for a given tract.  The party affiliation is mapped over the Hispanic data to aid in the analysis.

Percent Voters Table

Table 1: Percent voters for all ethnicities and percent hispanic.

Source:  Brenton White ArcMap Project 6 data.

Table 1 shows the percent of registered voters for all ethnicities and the percent of registered Hispanic voters out of the total population and Hispanic population, respectively.  For all ethnicities, about 53.6 of the total population are registered to vote, while only about 23.3% of Hispanic voters are registered out of the total Hispanic population.  These numbers illustrate that the Hispanic population is under-represented during elections (assuming the percentage of voters who are eligible to vote are about the same for all ethnicities).

Questions From Project 4

What areas of the city have the lowest percentages of registered voters?

The areas with the lowest percentage of registered voters is in the western and northern sections of the city (the two shades of lighter blue in figure 1 above), with a few pockets interspersed among the higher areas.

Is there any variation in party support within the city (i.e., do different parties dominate different parts of the city)?

Yes, in some areas the Mugwumps dominate and the Whigs dominate in others.  While the variation isn't great, it does give one party a majority over the other.  In some cases, the Mugwumps have a majority over all the others, while in other cases, the Whigs do.  In a few cases, neither has a majority, but they still dominate the other parties. 

Should the Whigs invest in Spanish language flyers for the growing Hispanic population?  If so, where should they distribute them?

The Whigs would do very well to invest in Spanish language flyers in order to get the Hispanic population to increase the number of registered voters.  Having only about 23% of the Hispanics registered to vote while all ethnicities have about 53% leaves the Hispanic population under-represented.  The Whigs would want to distribute the flyers in areas where:

• The percent of Hispanic population is low (light shades),

• The number of Hispanics is high (absolute number), and

• Whigs are not the majority (pie chart).

We consider this the first priority if the number of flyers or our resources are limited.  There  are a couple of tracts in the central-south-east section that has a mid-percentage of registered voters, but a high (58 and 66) number who are registered.  This would be a great area since the total number of potential folks is high.  It might seem obvious to concentrate on the lowest percentage areas, but these might represent small numbers of people and, thus, not an area to target.  So, we must look at the three factors I mentioned above to determine our target areas and then spread activities (like handing out flyers) from there.
 

GEOG 5223: Elements of GIS: Part 2 (ESRI Track) CD. Accessed 22 August 2004.

GEOG 5223: Project 6: Analysis and Design. August 2004.